Will Scotland at last end the New Zealand curse?

Rugby action
The All Blacks implemented three adjustments to the squad that defeated the Irish team

Autumn Nations Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks

Where: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital When: this weekend Time: 3:10 PM GMT

Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a Test.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, their chicanery, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Match moment
Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the 31-23 defeat to the All Blacks in 2022

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.

Tyler Gallegos
Tyler Gallegos

Seasoned gambling enthusiast and writer with over a decade of experience in online casino reviews and strategies.

Popular Post